// by seankriegler.com
Drawdown Survival Calculator
Most traders don't blow accounts on a single bad trade — they blow up during drawdowns. This calculator tells you what to expect and whether your current risk settings can survive it.
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Expected Max Losing Streak
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Expected Max Drawdown %
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Max Drawdown Amount
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Balance at Max DD
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Recovery Gain Needed
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Safe Risk Level
Simulated Equity Curve (Monte Carlo Preview)
Losing Streak Probability Table
| Streak Length | Probability of Occurring | Capital Lost at Current Risk | Balance After |
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// Expected Max Streak
Formula: ln(total trades) ÷ ln(1 ÷ loss rate). Even a 60% win rate trader should expect a streak of 5–6 consecutive losses over 100 trades.
// The Recovery Trap
A 20% drawdown requires a 25% gain to recover. A 50% drawdown needs 100%. The deeper the hole, the harder the climb out.
// Safe Risk Level
The risk % that keeps your expected max drawdown under 20% of account equity — the professional money management threshold.
// Drawdown vs Ruin
Drawdown is temporary loss of peak equity. Ruin is when you can no longer trade. Surviving drawdowns requires sizing small enough that no streak can wipe you out.