// by seankriegler.com

R-Multiple Outcome Calculator

Express every trade in R (1R = what you risk per trade). Input your win rate and average R-multiples to see your true edge, expectancy per trade and a Monte Carlo equity simulation.

Starting Capital

Risk per Trade (1R)

Win Rate %

Avg Win (R multiple)

Avg Loss (R multiple)

Trades to Simulate

Expectancy per Trade

Expectancy (R)

Break-even Win Rate

Est. Risk of Ruin

Avg Simulated Final

Median Final Balance

Monte Carlo Equity Curves (20 simulations)

// What is R?

R is the amount you risk on a trade (e.g. R200). A 2R win means you made R400. A 1R loss means you lost R200. Expressing trades in R removes currency bias.

// Expectancy

(Win% × Avg Win R) − (Loss% × Avg Loss R). Positive = profitable edge. Negative = losing system regardless of win rate.

// Break-even Win Rate

The minimum win rate needed so expectancy = 0. Avg Loss R ÷ (Avg Win R + Avg Loss R). A 2.5R avg win needs only 28.6% wins to break even.

// Monte Carlo

20 random equity paths using your inputs. The spread shows the range of possible outcomes — wide spread means high variance, even with a positive edge.