Risk of Ruin Calculator

Estimate the probability of losing a given % of your account using a Monte Carlo of your strategy edge

Win Rate %

Reward : Risk Ratio

Risk per Trade %

Ruin Threshold %

Trades to Simulate

Expectancy / Trade

Risk of Ruin

Monte Carlo Ruin %

Avg Final Equity

(Win % × R) − Loss %. A positive expectancy is required for the strategy to be profitable long-term.

Approximation: ((1 − edge) ÷ (1 + edge))^U where U = ruin% ÷ risk%.

Runs 1,000 simulated equity curves over your trade count and reports how many hit the ruin threshold.